区域发展战略对能源消耗的影响研究——新结构经济学视角

基于新结构经济学理论，对区域发展战略与能源消耗的关系进行理论和实证分析。理论分析发现，违背比较优势的区域发展战略使得人均能源消耗增大。进一步地，利用我国1997-2019年的省级面板数据进行实证检验，在选取老工业基地数量作为区域发展战略的工具变量等内生性处理和稳健性检验后，实证结果支持上述理论假说。异质性分析发现，处于不同发展阶段的地区，区域发展战略对能源消耗的影响不同。进一步讨论发现，违背比较优势的区域发展战略还会导致能源库兹涅茨曲线的第二个拐点延后，峰值也将变大，阻碍能源库兹涅茨曲线的收敛。为实现人与自然和谐共生的“中国式现代化”，建议政府采用符合比较优势的的地区发展战略，并大力支持创新和相关人才的培训以及继续教育工作。     

Does the Exchange Rate Respond to Monetary Policy in Mexico? Solving an Exchange Rate Puzzle in Emerging Markets

This paper argues that the null or weak response of emerging market currencies to domestic monetary policy documented in the literature is the result of wide event windows. An event study with intraday data for Mexico shows that an unanticipated tightening appreciates the currency and flattens the yield curve, consistent with the evidence for advanced economies. With daily event windows, however, only the yield curve responds to monetary policy. Noise in daily exchange rate returns explains the lack of response of the currency. Such noise gives rise to a bias that declines after controlling for potential omitted variables.     

The 1932 Federal Reserve Open-Market Purchases as a Precedent for Quantitative Easing

The $1 billion open-market operation conducted by the Federal Reserve, at the height of the Great Depression, was a successful precedent to the recent Quantitative Easing (QE) programs. The 1932 program entailed large purchases of medium- and long-term securities over a 4-month period. An event study analysis indicates that the program dramatically lowered medium- and long-term Treasury yields. A segmented markets model is used to analyze the effects of the open-market purchases on the economy. A significant degree of financial market segmentation is estimated, and partly explains the observed upturn in output growth. Had the Federal Reserve continued its operations and used the announcement strategy used in QE1, the Great Contraction could have been attenuated earlier. Our historical analysis suggests that the Federal Reserve in 2008 had a good predecessor to its actions.     

Revisiting the Phillips curve for Indonesia: What can we learn from regional data?

This study seeks new empirical evidence of the Phillips curve in Indonesia, an emerging and geographically diversified economy. There are three important contributions from this research. First, applying panel econometric method to exploit regional variation, the study resolves the issue of using on-target national inflation rates that potentially causes weakening inflation-output link. Second, the research examines the relevance of mining industry for output gap measurement at regional level. Third, it highlights the differences in the Phillips curve between the west and east regions owing to their different underlying economic structures. Our estimation using regional data support the validity of the Phillips curve relationship in Indonesia. Backward-looking inflation expectations, exchange rate dynamics and international prices also significantly affect inflation. In addition, the effect of output gap on inflation is larger if the mining sector is excluded from output gap measurement. Finally, we find apparent differences between the west and the eastern regions in the slope of Phillips curve, as well as in the degree of inflation persistence and exchange rate pass-through. The results are robust to alternative specification. Our study adds significantly to the empirical literature on the Phillips curve and have meaningful policy implications.     

Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and Inflation Dynamics during and after the Great Recession

In this paper, I develop a New Keynesian model that embeds heterogeneous workers with asymmetric wage adjustment costs to address two inflation puzzles: missing deflation during the Great Recession and the subsequent missing inflation. When the wage adjustment costs are estimated according to U.S. microwage data, downward nominal wage rigidity emerges, which flattens the observed price Phillips curve during and after recessions. Endogenous evolution of the cross-sectional wage distribution generates nonlinear dynamics including the sign, size, and state dependence. These nonlinearities enable the model to address the inflation puzzles as well as matching microevidence on wage adjustments.     

Reforms and education inequality in Ghana

We analyze the evolvement of education inequality and the gender gap in Ghana before and after two major education reforms. Using different measures of inequality, our findings suggest that the gender gap at the basic school level has closed following the introduction of the education expansion policies, but inequalities persist at the postbasic school levels and across regions. We further demonstrate that the educational expansion–schooling inequality nexus is best illustrated by an inverted U-shaped Kuznets curve. We find that after an average of 6 years of schooling has been reached, inequality starts to decline, and gender equality can be achieved when the average years of schooling reach 9.     

耕地占用与经济增长脱钩关系的倒U型曲线检验：武汉市的实证

研究目的:以武汉市为研究区域,检验耕地占用与经济增长的脱钩关系是否呈倒U型曲线,为缓解耕地占用与经济增长的矛盾提供理论依据。研究方法:脱钩分析,低通滤波。研究结果:(1)武汉市耕地占用与非农GDP之间的脱钩关系呈现出"弱脱钩—扩张连接—扩张负脱钩—弱脱钩—扩张连接"的变化,脱钩弹性值波动曲线符合库兹涅茨倒U型曲线假说。(2)根据脱钩弹性值波动变化曲线,可以将统计期划分为4个阶段:1992—2000年、2001—2004年、2005—2009年和2010—2013年,且耕地保护政策对耕地占用与经济增长之间的脱钩关系有显著影响。研究结论:武汉市耕地占用与经济增长的脱钩关系呈倒U型曲线,当前武汉市耕地占用与经济增长脱钩关系位于倒U型曲线的下降阶段,通过加强耕地保护政策的实施力度可以使武汉市耕地占用与经济增长的关系维持为强脱钩。     

城市用水与经济发展:政策的影响——基于27个国家的实证分析

揭示城市人均用水和经济社会发展的长期关系,分析政策因素对于城市人均用水量的影响。基于面板数据回归模型,考察27个国家在1960—2010年的城市用水情况,发现城市人均用水与经济发展存在着N型关系,即随着经济发展,城市人均用水量经历先增后减的过程,当经济发展达到较高水平,城市用水趋于稳定,且略有增加,这一关系吻合库兹涅茨曲线的形态,因此被命名为水的库兹涅茨曲线。区分水的效率政策和水的效能政策2种不同的政策,发现水的效率政策对于降低城市人均用水量效果更为直接显著,而水的效能政策则需要一定时间的实施使其发挥效果。政府可通过合理配置不同的政策实现水资源的优化利用,从而实现可持续发展。     

基于参数模型的国债市场利率曲线的估计

即期利率和远期利率曲线是金融行业中最为基本和重要的工具。在对利率期限结构参数模型中被广泛运用的NS模型和Svensson模型进行比较分析的基础上,估计了我国国债市场的即期利率和远期利率曲线。实证研究表明,Svensson模型在以最小化收益率误差的估计方法下,能够较理想地构造中国国债市场的即期利率曲线和远期利率曲线。     

Once again “smile curve”: Is chain upgrading possible?

The geographic fragmentation of the production process inevitably leads to the question of whether or not there is a relationship between the level of value-added and the position of production stages along with a global production/value chain, known as the “smile curve” as the theoretical literature suggests. This study investigates the relationship between value-added and production stages across more than 34 sectors over 40 countries for two different periods, 1995–2011 and 2000–2014, by taking into account a variety of different measures of production stage and country-sector heterogeneity. In the first step, we utilize the decomposition methodology of Wang, Wei, Yu, and Zhu (2017) to track the production stages across country sector. In the second step, we test our hypotheses by employing the fixed effects (FE) estimation technique. The results show that the relationship between value-added content in output and backward length exhibits a U-shaped distributional pattern. The significant results for both developed and developing economies indicate the potential of economies to benefit from the functional upgrading along with production stages. Our general conclusion regarding production chains is also valid for stages mainly related to the global value chain (GVC), especially for developed countries. Furthermore, capital intensity and total factor productivity appear to be crucial factors for improvements in process upgrading. Given the robust and positive impacts of chain upgrading in all countries considering both the total production process and GVC part, industries should exploit the opportunities for higher value-added in the global production system.